Happy Wednesday! Buckle up for active weather and significant changes over the next few days as a powerful Pacific storm system approaches our region. Severe thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Montana today and tomorrow.
Today, scattered thunderstorms will develop in southwest Montana, pushing northeast into central Montana by evening. The main risks include gusty and potentially damaging wind gusts, small hail and flash flooding concerns near burn scars.
Into tomorrow, these storms will become more organized and intensify as they shift into eastern Montana. The primary hazards are likely to be damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes.
Then, a widespread and beneficial rainfall is on the way for the region. As the upper level low approaches overnight, the showers will become more widespread as moisture wraps around the storm system. The heaviest rainfall will likely fall Thursday night in central Montana. High-resolution models are indicating especially heavy rainfall developing over the Bears Paw Mountains and into Blaine and eastern Phillips counties, where up to 3 inches of rainfall could pile up. Rain amounts of 0.5-1"+ will be common throughout central Montana, especially for areas favored by upsloping.
Additionally, there is also the possibility of some high elevation snow as the system moves overhead. 3-10" of snow could pile up above 6500 feet for Highway 28 Tendoy to Lone Pine, Georgetown Lake, Highway 93 Sula to Lost Trail Pass, and Williams Creek Summit. An accumulating snowfall is also possible in Glacier National Park and over Kings Hill Pass/Showdown Montana.
This system will be highly beneficial for alleviating drought conditions, decreasing fire activity and reducing wildfire smoke. As the storm moves out, we can look forward to drying out and warming up over the weekend, with highs returning to the 70s. It will be a fantastic weekend for the entire area! However, another system could bring in more active weather early next week.
