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A look at summer heat trends in central Montana

Some parts of the state are warming quicker than others
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Montana's diverse geography and topography contribute to vast differences in local impacts seen in a warming climate and atmosphere. Whether the impact be increased heat-related deaths or more intense flash flood events, it is clear no community will be spared from the consequences of the projected climate trends.

Data from Climate Central shows that 96% of 246 selected locations throughout the United States have recorded increases in summertime temperatures since 1970. 81%. seeing a week or more of additional 90°+ days.

While there are only around 90 miles separating Great Falls and Helena, the impacts felt by an overall warming climate have varied. Great Falls has seen an increase of 7 warm days (85°+), whereas Helena has seen an increase of over three weeks of warm days (90°+).

These differences likely come back to moisture availability. Helena typically accumulates 3 inches less annually than Great Falls. It takes energy, or latent heat, to evaporate moisture. This leads to disparities in the energy available to generate heat.

The rising winter and spring temperatures can have detrimental effects on many industries throughout the state. However, the increasingly hot summers directly correlates to greater heat-related illnesses and deaths. Research from the National Heat, Blood and Lung Institute found that an increase of 30 90°+ days will result in 2 additional deaths per 100,000 adults.

Warmer air also holds more moisture which can in turn lead to more intense rainfall rates. However, this does not directly lead to greater overall precipitation. It does raise the risk of flash flood events similar to the flash flooding in Helena on July 3rd, 2022.

Without action, Climate Central projects the climate of central Montana to look something like the climate of southwestern Colorado in the next 40 years or so.


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