Republicans who gathered at the Armory Hotel in Bozeman on Tuesday night celebrated each time they heard an update to the state election results – results that party leaders say show their strong position in Montana.
“We basically have the whole state now,” party chair Don Kaltschmidt told MTN News on Wednesday.
Since 2016, Montana Republicans have been seeing increasing success in statewide elections, and Tuesday night continued that trend.
Republican Tim Sheehy won Montana’s second U.S. Senate seat from longtime incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, the lone remaining statewide Democratic officeholder. It’s the first time since 1911 – when senators were still chosen by state legislatures instead of popular votes – that both Montana senators will be Republicans.
In addition, Republicans held both of Montana’s U.S. House seats, and they swept the governor’s race and other state executive offices.
Kaltschmidt said the margins in those races were beyond what he had expected: “We feel very, very good. We believe that we have definitely ‘red-printed’ Montana.”
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Ten years ago, Democrats held four of five state executive offices and both Senate seats. Kaltschmidt said he believed the change was partly because the Republican Party was now more in line with Montana voters’ values and partly because of what he called “political refugees” – newcomers to the state who boosted the GOP.
“We had all these people move in here, that wanted freedom,” he said. “I think Montana is now a free state – and very much a Republican state.”
Eric Austin is the head of Montana State University’s political science department. He says there has been research on the people moving into Montana. While it hasn’t focused on political affiliation, it has looked at what attracted them to Montana.
“I think when you look at that coupled with the characteristics of the state – and certainly the, I think, image of the state from the outside – it's pretty easy to make some connections between folks from California, from Washington, Colorado, other places that have maybe seen the state politics move to the left, feeling like voters in that state have sort of been left behind if they're more conservative, coming to a state that they see as more clearly representing their principles and interests,” Austin said.
Austin said it appears concerns about inflation and cost of living boosted Republicans across the U.S. in this year’s elections, and that likely contributed to the margins in Montana’s races.
Kaltschmidt said, with Republicans winning not only in Montana but also at the federal level, the party does have a responsibility now to govern.
“We need to come together,” he said. “We need to work with Democrats, going forward in the House and in the Senate. Here in Montana, I think the governor and everybody on down wants to do that. We need to come together as a state here in Montana, and we need to come together as a country.”
Montana Democrats did have one bright spot in the results Tuesday, as it appears they’re likely to pick up two seats in the state Senate and several more in the House – enough to break Republicans’ two-thirds supermajority. Those gains have a lot to do with a newly drawn legislative map, which Democrats had said would lead to a distribution of seats that more closely matched the statewide vote split.
Sen. Pat Flowers, the Senate minority leader, told reporters Wednesday that he had “mixed emotions” comparing the legislative gains with the statewide results.
“I think, where we were successful in districts – maybe at a local level or at a legislative level – when we weren't at some statewide levels, I think it was a product of a lot of door-knocking, a lot of conversations with constituents about what their needs were and assuring them that we had plans to meet their needs,” he said.
Sheila Hogan, executive director of the Montana Democratic Party, released a statement on the results to MTN.
“Running for public office requires a tremendous amount of energy, time, and resources,” she said. “The Montana Democratic Party is truly grateful to all our candidates who decided to step up and fight for families and working Montanans. Democratic legislative candidates have gained the most seats in 30 years. Property taxes, affordable housing, and protecting public education and access to healthcare are all on the line next session and Democrats are ready to roll up their sleeves and get to work.”
